A dynamic model of global natural gas supply

This paper presents the Dynamic Upstream Gas Model (DYNAAMO); a new, global, bottom-up model of natural gas supply. In contrast to most “static” supply-side models, which bracket resources by average cost, DYNAAMO creates a range of dynamic outputs by simulating investment and operating decisions in the upstream gas industry triggered in response to investors’ expectations of future gas prices. Industrial data from thousands of gas fields is analysed and used to build production and expenditure profiles which drive the economics of supply at field level. Using these profiles, a novel methodology for estimating supply curves is developed which incorporates the size, age and operating environment of gas fields, and treats explicitly the fiscal, abandonment, exploration and emissions costs of production. The model is validated using the US shale gas boom in the 2000s as a historic case study. It is found that the modelled market share of supply by field environment replicates the observed trend during the period 2000–2010, and that the model price response during the same period – due to lower capacity margins and the financing of new projects – is consistent with market behaviour

Characterising the distribution of methane and carbon dioxide emissions from the natural gas supply chain

Methane and CO2 emissions from the natural gas supply chain have been shown to vary widely but there is little understanding about the distribution of emissions across supply chain routes, processes, regions and operational practises. This study defines the distribution of total methane and CO2 emissions from the natural gas supply chain, identifying the contribution from each stage and quantifying the effect of key parameters on emissions. The study uses recent high-resolution emissions measurements with estimates of parameter distributions to build a probabilistic emissions model for a variety of technological supply chain scenarios. The distribution of emissions resembles a log-log-logistic distribution for most supply chain scenarios, indicating an extremely heavy tailed skew: median estimates which represent typical facilities are modest at 18 – 24 g CO2 eq./ MJ HHV, but mean estimates which account for the heavy tail are 22 – 107 g CO2 eq./ MJ HHV. To place these values into context, emissions associated with natural gas combustion (e.g. for heat) are approximately 55 g CO2/ MJ HHV. Thus, some supply chain scenarios are major contributors to total greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas. For methane-only emissions, median estimates are 0.8 – 2.2% of total methane production, with mean emissions of 1.6 - 5.5%. The heavy tail distribution is the signature of the disproportionately large emitting equipment known as super-emitters, which appear at all stages of the supply chain. The study analyses the impact of different technological options and identifies a set of best technological option (BTO) scenarios. This suggests that emissions-minimising technology can reduce supply chain emissions significantly, with this study estimating median emissions of 0.9% of production. However, even with the emissions-minimising technologies, evidence suggests that the influence of the super-emitters remains. Therefore, emissions-minimising technology is only part of the solution: reducing the impact of super emitters requires more effective detection and rectification, as well as pre-emptive maintenance processes

Hydrogen and fuel cell technologies for heating: A review

The debate on low-carbon heat in Europe has become focused on a narrow range of technological options and has largely neglected hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, despite these receiving strong support towards commercialisation in Asia. This review examines the potential benefits of these technologies across different markets, particularly the current state of development and performance of fuel cell micro-CHP. Fuel cells offer some important benefits over other low-carbon heating technologies, and steady cost reductions through innovation are bringing fuel cells close to commercialisation in several countries. Moreover, fuel cells offer wider energy system benefits for high-latitude countries with peak electricity demands in winter. Hydrogen is a zero-carbon alternative to natural gas, which could be particularly valuable for those countries with extensive natural gas distribution networks, but many national energy system models examine neither hydrogen nor fuel cells for heating. There is a need to include hydrogen and fuel cell heating technologies in future scenario analyses, and for policymakers to take into account the full value of the potential contribution of hydrogen and fuel cells to low-carbon energy systems

Impact of drilling costs on the US gas industry: prospects for automation

Recent low gas prices have greatly increased pressure on drilling companies to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Field trials have shown that implementing automation can dramatically reduce drilling costs by reducing the time required to drill wells. This study uses the DYNamic upstreAm gAs MOdel (DYNAAMO), a new techno-economic, bottom-up model of natural gas supply, to quantitatively assess the economic impact of lower drilling costs on the US upstream gas industry. A sensitivity analysis of three key economic indicators is presented, with results quoted for the most common field types currently producing, including unconventional and offshore gas. While all operating environments show increased profitability from drilling automation, it is found that conventional onshore reserves can benefit to the greatest extent. For large gas fields, a 50% reduction in drilling costs is found to reduce initial project breakevens by up to 17 million USD per billion cubic metres (MUSD/BCM) and mid-plateau breakevens by up to 8 MUSD/BCM. In this same scenario, additional volumes of around 160 BCM of unconventional gas are shown to become commercial due to both the lower costs of additional production wells in mature fields and the viability of developing new resources held in smaller fields. The capital efficiency of onshore projects increases by 50%-100%, with initial project net present value (NPV) gains of up to 32%

Assessing the impact of future greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas production

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) produced by the extraction of natural gas are an important contributor to lifecycle emissions and account for a significant fraction of anthropogenic methane emissions in the USA. The timing as well as the magnitude of these emissions matters, as the short term climate warming impact of methane is up to 120 times that of CO 2 . This study uses estimates of CO 2 and methane emissions associated with different upstream operations to build a deterministic model of GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional gas fields as a function of time. By combining these emissions with a dynamic, techno-economic model of gas supply we assess their potential impact on the value of different types of project and identify stranded resources in various carbon price scenarios. We focus in particular on the effects of different emission metrics for methane, using the global warming potential (GWP) and the global temperature potential (GTP), with both fixed 20-year and 100-year CO 2 -equivalent values and in a time-dependent way based on a target year for climate stabilisation. We report a strong time dependence of emissions over the lifecycle of a typical field, and find that bringing forward the stabilisation year dramatically increases the importance of the methane contribution to these emissions. Using a commercial database of the remaining reserves of individual projects, we use our model to quantify future emissions resulting from the extraction of current US non-associated reserves. A carbon price of at least 400 USD/tonne CO 2 is effective in reducing cumulative GHGs by 30–60%, indicating that decarbonising the upstream component of the natural gas supply chain is achievable using carbon prices similar to those needed to decarbonise the energy system as a whole. Surprisingly, for large carbon prices, the choice of emission metric does not have a significant impact on cumulative emissions

Exploring research institutes: Structures, functioning and typology

Research institutes play an important role as part of the innovation landscape, which includes industrial, academic and governmental organisations. Although there is often much confusion over what constitutes an institute and there can even be a number of different terms associated with such organisational forms, including centres, networks, programmes and laboratories. Indeed institutes can enable multidisciplinary research and the translation of knowledge generated to deliver societal benefits and address industrial requirements. However, despite the benefits offered by establishing research institutes, there has been a distinct lack of studies in this area. Therefore, this paper provides the findings from an initial research study into the structure, functioning and typology of institutes. Following a literature review on institutes, a benchmarking study involving examination of 25 research institutes associated with the energy sector has been carried out. This study identified key features of the institutes, in regard to the research area, technology readiness level, funding, partners, organisational structure, leadership and governance arrangements. Subsequent analysis of these findings has resulted in three main types of institute being identified. The pros and cons for each institute type are provided along with recommendations on the development and management of research institutes

Utility of salt-marsh foraminifera, testate amoebae and bulk-sediment δ13C values as sea-level indicators in Newfoundland, Canada

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.We investigated the utility of foraminifera, testate amoebae and bulk-sediment δ 13 C measurements for reconstructing Holocene relative sea level from sequences of salt-marsh sediment in Newfoundland, Canada. Modern, surface sediment was collected along transects from low to supra-tidal elevations in eastern (at Placentia) and western (at Hynes Brook and Big River) Newfoundland. Consistent with previous work, low-diversity assemblages of foraminifera display an almost binary division into a higher salt-marsh assemblage dominated by Jadammina macrescens and Balticammina pseudomacrescens and a lower salt-marsh assemblage comprised of Miliammina fusca. This pattern and composition resembles those identified at other high latitude sites with cool climates and confirms that foraminifera are sea-level indicators. The lowest occurrence of testate amoebae was at approximately mean higher high water. The composition of high salt-marsh testate amoebae assemblages (Centropyxis cassis type, Trinema spp., Tracheleuglypha dentata type, and Euglypha spp.) in Newfoundland was similar to elsewhere in the North Atlantic, but preservation bias favors removal of species with idiosomic tests over those with xenosomic tests. The mixed high salt-marsh plant community in Newfoundland results in bulk surface-sediment δ 13 C values that are typical of C 3 plants, making them indistinguishable from freshwater sediment. Therefore we propose that the utility of this proxy for reconstructing RSL in eastern North America is restricted to the coastline between Chesapeake Bay and southern Nova Scotia. Using a simple, multi-proxy approach to establish that samples in three radiocarbon-dated sediment cores formed between the lowest occurrence of testate amoebae and the highest occurrence of foraminifera, we generated three example late Holocene sea-level index points at Hynes Brook.This work was supported by NSF awards OCE-1458921, OCE-1458904 and EAR-1402017 and the Robert L. Nichols student research fund of the Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences at Tufts University. Foraminiferal data from Hynes Brook and Big River were collected as part of a series of projects including “Ocean-climate variability and sea level in the North Atlantic region since AD 0” funded by the Dutch National Research Programme (NRP) on Global air pollution and Climate Change; “Coastal Records” funded by the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and “Simulations, Observations & Palaeoclimatic data: climate variability over the last 500 years” funded by the European Union

Increased Aβ pathology in aged Tg2576 mice born to mothers fed a high fat diet

Maternal obesity is associated with increased risk of developing diabetes, obesity and premature death in adult offspring. Mid-life diabetes, hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia are risk factors for the development of sporadic Alzheimer's disease (AD). A key pathogenic feature of AD is the accumulation of β-amyloid (Aβ) in the brain. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of high fat diet feeding during early life on Aβ pathology in the Tg2576 mouse model of AD. Female mice were fed a standard (C) or high fat (HF) diet before mating and during gestation and lactation. At weaning, male offspring were fed a C diet. Significantly higher levels of guanidine-soluble Aβ and plaque loads were observed in the hippocampi of 11-month old Tg2576 mice born to mothers fed a HF diet. Changes in the extracellular matrix led to increased retention of Aβ within the parenchyma. These data support a role for maternal and gestational health on the health of the aged brain and pathologies associated with AD and may provide a novel target for both the prevention and treatment of AD